This is exponential growth

Since I last posted on Wednesday, we have seen about zero sign of any flattening in the exponential growth of COVID-19 cases worldwide.

I’m not a epidemiologist, or a health professional, or a infectious disease expert. But I do know what an exponential looks like. With cases doubling about every four days world wide, and quicker than that in NZ (possibly fuelled by a rapid return of people from the US and Europe) this graph shows where we are headed if the exponential continues. Anything the NZ government does today won’t flow on into the figures for another couple of weeks, as it takes time for symptoms to form, a person to be tested and results to come back. This is scary.

Alert level 2 isn’t going to cut it. Nor, I fear, is 3. We need to be at 4. Today.

If things look better after two weeks, we can reconsider that level.

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